Labour to increase number of MP's?
Tuesday, 10 November 2009
There was a good opinion poll for Labour in the Herald in terms of Scottish Westminster voting intentions with a thumping 14-point lead over the SNP, a massive 10-point swing from 6 months ago suggesting that people think this is a 2 horse race and want to vote Labour to stop the Tories.
What is incredible is that Labour get the same share of vote that they had in 2005 despite everything that has happened in the 4 years since then.
This is how Robbie Dunwoody describes what has happened to the Scottish Government in the past 6 months:
"His Government has been under heavy fire over the Glasgow Airport Rail Link cancellation, the planned clampdown on alcohol, failure to reduce class sizes and job losses such as those planned at Diageo – all giving opponents a sense that a corner is being turned."
When you extrapolate the opinion poll across Scotland you get a great result where Labour actually have more MP's than before. The breakdown of MP's is as follows:
Labour - 42
Lib Dem - 7
SNP - 7
Tories - 3
So the SNP will gain a grant total of 1 MP according to this poll. In terms of marginal seats it means that Jim Murphy, Mark Lazarowicz, Anne McGuire, Nigel Griffiths and Russel Brown are all safe.
It's only one poll and it still has an SNP lead in Holyrood but it is consistent with the trend and a nice boost for North East polling day on Thursday.
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10 comments:
If, as you claim, all those negative things are leading to a downturn in the SNP's vote - why, as all of those actions are by the Scottish Government - does the same poll show the SNP ahead of Labour by a fair distance? That, my dear friend, is illogical.
If people wanted, and agreed with the Labour party policies, surely they'd back them at all four levels of Governance? Rather than just the one?
People will vote Labour at the Westminster election, I think, because in Scotland the Tories are still hated too much. I predict though, that the SNP will still win the next local government elections, the next Scottish Parliament elections - they already won the European Elections not too long ago.
If the closest to good news that the labour Party can find are that they're still hated less than the Tories in Scotland, then there are certainly straws and grasping involved.
I think you are partly right and the argument that people have to vote Labour to beat the Tories is quite effective. The poll result has nothing to do with GARL, clamping down on cheap drink sales etc - it is about differential voting. People who will vote SNP in Holyrood won't vote SNP in Westminster because they see Westminster as a two horse race between the Tories and Labour.
So far so good for Labour. But what happens when these people do vote Labour and get a Tory Government? I am sure you are aware that, barring a miracle, that is going to be the outcome of the UK election though I don't expect you to admit it.
What does Scottish Labour do then - have you even thought about it yet?
Labour won't be leading the resistance to a Tory Government in Scotland after all, the SNP will.
So what will Labour do? Support the SNP Government against the Tories in Westminster (thus legitimising both the SNP Government and Scottish nationalism in the eyes of your own supporters) or back the Tories against the SNP?
Or sit back and do nothing except criticise both?
It is a dilemma isn't it?
I said it yesterday and I will say it again, the Labour vote in Scotland is a protest vote against the inevitable Tory Gov.
Why else would 39% of Scots vote Labour?
61% of Scots will not vote Labour yet 70% of us will have a Labour MP, bad day for democracy hence the reason I hope the Tory part win hands down then the Scots will see what a waisted vote for Labour in Scotland really is.
Great poll for the SNP despite all whats happened over the last 2 years, voters must love the SNP..
Is it not a problem that we will have a majority conservative government in UK which will be a minority in terms of votes.When will we have a fair system of voting.
It's not my claim it's Robbie Dunwoody's Grogipher although I suspect he is making that case as he is looking at the constituency voting intentions in Holyrood going from a 12 point SNP lead to an 8 point one and both polls are form the same polling company.
Personally I think it is a combination of people doubting some of the Scottish Governments 'achievements' compared to what they promised and also the fact that people don't think they matter in the face of a Labour-Tory battle.
Indy, I hope and believe that we wil not shy away from attacking the Tories when they make regressive decisions, similarly we will not criticise them for the sake of them is the SNP try and use them to deflect from their own failings.
That's entirely illogical...
In 2007 the SNP received about 32% of the vote, that poll has them at 40% - that's UP EIGHT POINTS.
How does that show that people are fed up of them? I'd really, really, really like to know. But then, you've a tendency to ignore difficult questions don't you ;)
I really do think you're living in a parallel universe these days mate...
Not sure what you mean there Yousaf. The Tories in Westminster will have control of the economy and everything that goes with it. They have hardly made a secret of their intentions. What is coming will surely make GCC getting rid of 4000 staff look like a stroll in the park.
How can Labour resist that without effectively making the argument for more fiscal autonomy for Scotland?
But if you make that case are you not moving into the SNP's ground?
Come on now Gregor you are being disingenuous there. As you well know a year after 2007 you were riding high beating us in Westminster voting intensions which led to Salmonds confident predictions of 20 MP's. That is not being reversed as the tide turns.
How am I being disingenuous?
I'm agreeing that our Westminster Polling is down, but I'm asking about your logic - if, as you say, people are so, so, so miffed at the Scottish Government's actions, why on Earth are more people wanting to now vote for them in the Scottish Parliament?
It doesn't make sense.
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