Hung Parliament
Sunday, 22 November 2009
There has been a positive opinion poll in the Observer today showing the Tory lead being cut to only 6 points:
Labour - 31
Tory - 37
LD - 17
Extrapolating this across the country would give us a hung parliament at the next election so it is all very much to play for. It could be a response to the Queens Speech or the Glasgow North East by election but economic confidence numbers suggest it is a vote of confidence in the Government as we come out of recession.
46% of people think that the economy will perform better next year with economic confidence at it's highest level since 1997 with unemployment rises at it's lowest level for a year and retailers gearing up for a good Christmas and the property market improving.
With the typical caveats that it is only one poll/ you need to look at the trends etc
I blogged recently about the Calman Commission and how it is clear that the only way to deliver more Home Rule and to deliver more powers to our national Parliament is to vote Labour. Some scoffed suggesting that the election was all done and dusted anyway, polls like these suggest it aint quite over yet...
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4 comments:
Seems like voters are also baulking at the prospect of Cameron's swingeing cuts
Yousuf
Peter does have a point about Cameron being associated with bigger cuts and tax increases, however, I do take issue with your comments about economic confidence.
You see, in spite of the current negative growth recessionary figures, these are only the thin end of the wedge. Many people are actually better off at the moment. What with no extra tax increases, prices slightly lower, 15% VAT, and most importantly rock bottom interest rates. Petrol and diesel prices have been relatively low until recently as well.
Contrast that with what is likely to happen next year. Even higher unemployment, higher VAT, income tax increases, increases to fuel, higher gas and electricity prices, not to mention the obvious cuts to public services. This will be the real recession for ordinary people, and the sitting Government will have to take it's share of the blame.
So don't get too cocky quite yet.
Better to have a bigger SNP representation at Westminster, a grouping actually representing Scots and for Scotland and not the interests of Labour or Tories. Which in effect ultimately is English interests.
Scotland first!
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/11/23/pb-angus-reid-poll-has-labour-down-to-22pc/
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