Smeaton: Not a Tory at least
Friday, 25 September 2009
Some amusement today as we learn that John Smeaton will be a candidate in the by election to replace Michael Martin in the Glasgow North East by election.
Ladbrokes have reacted to the news by publishing their latest odds to include Smeato which are as follows:
Willie Bain (Labour) - 4/6
Davd Kerr (SNP) - 5/4
John Smeaton - 8/1
Ruth Davidson (Tory) -100/1
Eileen Baxendale (LD) - 100/1
I'm not a gambling man and don't really understand odds but unless I'm very much mistaken this means that Smeaton with no money or major party backing is 12.5 times more likely to win than the Tories or Lib Dems!
Just goes to show you, he might be famous for punching a burning man, but at least he is not a Tory!
As I say I'm not a betting man but those odds for Willie Bain certainly don't look too bad to those fancying a punt from my experience on the doorsteps so far. People seen genuinely receptive to us. It's still very early days but it is looking good and I know everyone says this but I have genuinely not seen the SNP out at all.
I'm sure they are about but so far so good. Anything could happen in the next month though so onwards and upwards!
p.s. As an airport worker I wonder what Smeato thinks of the Glasgow Airport Rail Link being cut?!
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5 comments:
Keep up, Smeato hasn't worked at the airport for some time now.
It is something of a surprise to read that an economics student doesn't understand odds though.
What's your thoughts on the Glasgow Airport Link?
For my part I've never ever considered visiting a city then decided not to based on the airport rail link. Conversely I've never ever visited a city based on the quality of its airport rail link either.
How anyone can claim that the rail link would benefit tourism is beyond me.
In my defence odds is more about statistics than economics!
Yousuf,
I'll give you a quick potted guide to odds, as the Scottish blogosphere's resident gambler (hence the Trixie that I put on my Twitter feed when I remember!)
Odds are just as much about economics - specifically the bookies' balance sheet - as they are about statistics and 4/6 is not just a way of the bookies expressing what they view as a 60% chance of a Labour win, although it does reflect that the bookies at this stage think a Labour win is probable.
Beyond that, everything is about profit margins: 4/6 means that if you place a £6 bet on a Labour win, and Labour do win, you win £10 - your £6 stake plus £4 profit. The bookies believe that with longer odds, they would take a greater financial hit, and with shorter odds, they would put people off placing the bet.
But this can be manipulated by the punters, just as online newspaper polls can. A wave of Labour supporters wanting to highlight how well the party is doing could put enough bets on the candidate to push the odds even further in, to, say, 8/13. Conversely, SNP supporters could bet with a view to pushing them in to 6/5 or even shorter odds than that.
Then there's the gambler's point of view, and let me tell you that speaking here as a gambler, I would not touch a 4/6 bet with a ten foot pole unless it were part of an accumulator with, say, the X Factor and Strictly winners. 4/6 on its own is incredibly poor value and even these odds will put punters off. That, in turn, will push the Labour odds back out again, to 8/11 or even longer. And with a long campaign, the odds have plenty of time to fluctuate.
That's helpful Will. On a totally unrelated note could I just highlight the excellent work Gamblers Anonymous do!
Thanks for clearing up your thoughts on the Glasgow Airport Link though.
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