Glenrothes - SNP

Right, so I suppose the first people to look at in the post by-election analysis is the SNP. Was it fair that they were deemed as favourites for a Labour seat with a 10,000 majority?

Maybe not but having won the comparable Scottish Parliamentary seat last year, the Glasgow East by election, the massive speculation on Brown's future as leader and the incredible confidence exuding from Alex Salmond I don't think it was unfair and Salmond certainly played up to it.

So what went so badly wrong for the SNP? For let's face it, this victory wasn't an organisational one down to the superior campaign resources or more volunteers, it's entire origins were in the voters, it really was a grassroots revolt against the Nats.

I remember getting a text at Chicago Airport saying we were going to lose by 2,000 votes, then that it was a dead heat, then we might just do it and then finally when the votes were being counted we realised the magnitude of victory.

I suspect that part of it was anger that the First Minister felt seemed to declare victory some time ago, showing a disregard for the voters, they were always going to react to such arrogance, and I think it has turned from smugness to sheer arrogance, and there seemed to be a feeling to cut him down to size.

Was Independence an issue? I think so. 2 massive Scottish banks were saved thanks to the strength of the UK Treasury and was able to receive loans thanks to the strength of it's accounts and reputation, whilst small independent countries were struggling left, right and centre.

But if I'm honest I don't think it was an independence issue which really punctured the SNP bubble. Nor do I think it was Salmond's arrogance, however much it must hurt him to say it, this was more important than even Alex Salmond.

I think it was just good old fashioned accountability. People were angry with the Local Council over a range of issues, particularly home care charges. There was simply nowhere for the SNP to turn, the old tactic of blaming London didn't work, it was the 'historic concordat' which delivered the effective budget cuts and the SNP council who administered them.

It was so important as with power comes genuine accountability. There's only so long that you can go blaming everyone else for decisions that you make. There comes a time where there is simply no where left to turn. I suspect that we will now see more scrutiny of what the SNP do.

You simply can't promise all things to all people and then create mythical monsters who are to blame for the one's you disappoint, it shows a certain contempt for the electorate that you believe that you can and the people of Fife haven't put up with it.

This is a by election, nothing more, nothing less so I'm not going to get carried away and say that the SNP will come to a grinding halt. They won't. But they will face more opposition as hey face the recriminations of their actions and will be forced to justify their decisions rather than deny responsibility for them.