Glenrothes - Labour
Saturday, 8 November 2008
Well what a day it was for Labour! Not only the great victory in Glenrothes but also council victories in Baillieston and Forth.
And let's not forget the magnitude of this. On the tip of what could be the most serious economic downturn since the Great Depression the Government of the day actually INCREASED.
As I said earlier, it wasn't expected. This was a real boost for Labour just as we were starting to get back on track, so what's changed since the summer?
Well first of all the economy has worsened and it's focused the mind of voters on what really matters. All the stupid little points about fitting in with the Westminster bubble and how good people look on TV suddenly matter less and actually doing things matter.
Now it's helped that both the Tories and the SNP have been utterly useless in this crisis but it's still been a positive vote for Brown. He's been decisive and internationally acclaimed with his action in improving the liquidity trap in the money markets and has shamed the banks into passing on the Bank of Englands massive interest rate cut to customers.
There was a lot of talk of Brown campaigning in Glenrothes. In doing so it meant that he would be stamped all over the by election and considered an electoral liability had we loss. But of course he wasn't a liability. He was a massive asset. This was partly to being in Fife but also due to the personal presence Brown has. He is very much trusted by people, particularly during difficult times and despite what is often reported, a very good campaigner.
It's also worth mentioning the new Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy. He played it brilliantly, getting every call right and setting the tone correctly, really showcasing the arrogance of Salmond. He's already proved himself to be an active Scottish Secretary and long may that continue.
A quick note about Baillieston. At the 2nd time of trying Andy Muir has won the seat. This is massive news as there was a real danger of Baillieston being a seat where 3 out of 4 councillors were Nats. That's not happened and both Baillieston and Labour have a young enthusiastic fighter.
We all talk about opinion polls until we're blue in the face but ultimately they mean very little, it's actual voting that matters. Now we've had a real vote, labour has increased it's share of the vote in a by election; we know that the Brown bounce really does exist and the other parties must be getting very scared...
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9 comments:
I think, despite the screaming headlines, this is hypocrisy from Labour. If you made it all about local issues, which Mr Roy(who i actually quite liked)can do nothing about, then how is it to do with Brown?
It is either a vote of no confidence in Fife council, or a vote of confidence in Brown. You cant have both
Come on, HP, you know things aren't quite as black and white as that.
Or perhaps Brown and yellow!
"[Gordon Brown] has shamed the banks into passing on the Bank of Englands massive interest rate cut to customers."
Looks like the banks are trying to spike his guns a bit:
Banks defy GB over new interest rate cut
A good analysis overall in the previous post on the by-election, not so sure about some of the points of detail.
Brown's campaign. It was an illusionary campaign. He visited the homes of activists in Cardenden, a cafe next door to the Labour campaign HQ ,and a captive audience at a factory down the road. Sarah Brown went further afield after a hesitant start and seemed to take well to campaigning. However, this was also an illusion. I watched the Labour team canvass my village, Lindsay Roy and Sarah Brown and a dozen or so others. They blitzed the village in around fifteen minutes, activists lined up on doorsteps to try and get locals for a photocall, rather than talk in any detail. The photos duly appeared in the papers the next day, creating the illusion of campaigning.
Labour ran a very effective campaign against the SNP council. The SNP failed to rebut this, and also failed to campaign on the HBOS takeover, a major failing that was causing me a little unease at the start of last week.
The voters were misread. The SNP took the Holyrood seat in a stunning 2007 victory, also taking the council. The assumption was that voters had swung from Labour to the SNP. Not entirely true - it appears that they swung to undecided who were won over by the SNP at the time, but many of these were clawed back by Labour this time. I think that Labour were also genuinely surprised by the victory, not just the SNP taken aback.
The Brown Bounce worked, but this is a temporary phenomenon that is unlikely to survive the recession biting deeper. If the HBOS takeover goes ahead, there will be tens of thousands of job losses in Scotland and this will shatter Brown's reputation.
Independence isn't a critical issue. Voters are more uneasy about independence following the Iceland collapse but, as we have seen, are happy to vote for the SNP with no intention of voting yes in a referendum on independence.
Attacking the SNP as incumbents worked well, particularly in the absence of a serious counter-attack or rebuttal on home care charges.
This is a local Fife victory, in a by-election as pointed out. The same conditions may not apply elsewhere in Scotland, and certainly not in the wider UK where the Tories still have a significant lead, despite the Brown Bounce. Also, the effective campaigning employed here could not be sustained in a general election. The local Labour party here is in some disarray and I don't believe there was any significant base of local activists - this campaign was run centrally.
Finally, I thought it was good to see a campaign on issues that steered clear of attacks on personalities.
Why can't it be a bit of both HP?
Jess, isn't the interesting point that the SNP are being held accountable as the Government and as the councils they hold?
That's not the case in England I confess although it helps that Osborne has been so useless so far in this downturn.
A fair analysis from Jess the Dog,I think most folk were confidently predicting an SNP win,i certainly thought the majority would be 1000-1500,(maybe thats why i dont bet anymore).A good point about the feeble Labour organization,not just in Glenrothes but also in Fife.
If labour want my vote in the next elections they better try and get knocking doors.
I think yousuf, as shown by the majority if they had made their campaign a bit of both it wouldve been fine. But it was all about Fife Council. Before even thanking anyone, Roys first words as an MP were: "Returning officer, the homecare charges rises must stop"
Talk about breaking convention
The new MP Lindsay Roy will need to be careful come the next general election. He will need to ensure expectations are either met or sidestepped, or they may come back to bite him! Home care charges are effectively down to the council and the Holyrood government (council tax freeze). I believe the issue is more complex than simply increased charges and it was a failure of the SNP campaign not to fight back on this. Were the SNP held accountable? Possibly. Home care charge rises may well be widespread in unpopularity and this may have been misread. However, will any party be brave enough to step forward with a committment to scrap such rises and, for example, scrap free school meals and increase in council tax? I don't believe it is within Roy's abilities to deliver such a pledge and it was disingenous to campaign on it (as it would be for a local councillor to campaign on troops out of Iraq) but this does not mean it should not be taken seriously, as it clearly was not. Back to the original point - if this is such a touchstone issue the council may decide to scrap them and Roy could claim a victory, but this may equally be a reason for the council not to scrap them. Such tangled webs....although I agree that, overall, the elderly get a raw deal and always have done.
Lets face it...
Labour lied through their teeth to win in Glenrothes. They scared old people against voting SNP with some of the most disgusting election literature ever seen in Scotland. They were backed as usual by their media machine. Fife's homecare charges went up for only those who were in a position to pay, for everyone else they were scrapped. Fife is STILL cheaper than many Labour Councils in Scotland.
Also, Lindsay Roy's pledges were on devolved matters, things he couldn't possibly deliver. He is a liar. This is a victory for spin and lies, nothing else.
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