Victory!

An absolutely excellent result for Labour with an absolutely cracking majority of 8111, almost as Michael Martin got in 2005 with a lower turnout. Phenomenal. We actually increased our share of a vote and in a westminster by election in a recession at the end of a third term of a Labour Government there was a swing from the SNP to Labour!

Needless to say after more than 12 hours of straight campaigning I am absolutely shattered but just a couple of quick thoughts of what is going on:

• The story is not about BNP or the turnout but a great win for Labour in a Westminster By Election at the end of a third term of a Labour Government
• After Glenrothes and now Glasgow North East it makes Glasgow East look more and more like a one-off that we won't see again
• 20 MP's? Aye that'll be right...
• It's a good day for the Labour Glasgow Council. The SNP have gone a lot on attacking Glasgow be it '74 years of neglect' of school closures but the good people of Springburn have rejected it.
• It is a real vindication for the 'ripped off Glasgow' campaign and people feel it and are not happy about it
• This will probably be the last by election before the General Election and it is a real boost for activists
• The two lowest by election turnouts in Scotland is Falkirk West and Glasgow North East, in both of which David Kerr was the SNP candidate!
• There have been opinion polls that show a trend away for the SNP but the best poll is always an election and here it is
• Independence was not mentioned at all in the campaign and never on the doorstep, I wonder if that will be true for the General Election also

But the most important thing now is to offer a massive congratulations to the honourable Willie Bain, MP for Glasgow North East. Willie has worked so hard for so long for so many other candidates and I can think of no one who deserves this more.

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Polling Day

I'm off to Springburn now for a long day as the good people of Glasgow North East go to the polls.

Conventional wisdom is that you talk down your chances on polling day so that if you lose it is expected and if you win it's a shock victory.

And needless to say the SNP have been playing down expectations which perhaps says more for their own confidence and it's been interesting that commenter's here have been speaking a lot about how big the Labour majority is although I don't remember this being mentioned in Glasgow East - it was all about a 'political earthquake' then.

I've been quite open about the fact that I'm confident that Labour will win and I'm not going to indulge in the spin game of dampening down expectations. I think we have the best candidate with a good grassroots campaign which is really connecting with people even if people are starting to get annoyed by the endless canvassers on their doors.

But you can never pre-judge the electorate and ultimately they will make up their mind and I have complete faith in their judgement. If there was a mandatory vote I'm sure we would walk it but the challenge is to make sure we get our vote out.

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Labour to increase number of MP's?

There was a good opinion poll for Labour in the Herald in terms of Scottish Westminster voting intentions with a thumping 14-point lead over the SNP, a massive 10-point swing from 6 months ago suggesting that people think this is a 2 horse race and want to vote Labour to stop the Tories.

What is incredible is that Labour get the same share of vote that they had in 2005 despite everything that has happened in the 4 years since then.

This is how Robbie Dunwoody describes what has happened to the Scottish Government in the past 6 months:

"His Government has been under heavy fire over the Glasgow Airport Rail Link cancellation, the planned clampdown on alcohol, failure to reduce class sizes and job losses such as those planned at Diageo – all giving opponents a sense that a corner is being turned."

When you extrapolate the opinion poll across Scotland you get a great result where Labour actually have more MP's than before. The breakdown of MP's is as follows:

Labour - 42
Lib Dem - 7
SNP - 7
Tories - 3

So the SNP will gain a grant total of 1 MP according to this poll. In terms of marginal seats it means that Jim Murphy, Mark Lazarowicz, Anne McGuire, Nigel Griffiths and Russel Brown are all safe.

It's only one poll and it still has an SNP lead in Holyrood but it is consistent with the trend and a nice boost for North East polling day on Thursday.

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The Ugliest Nationalism

Every now and then I receive an email about blog readers. Sometimes it is very nice, occasionally helpful and sometimes abusive. I received this email this evening:

"Now not knowing your parentage but from your picture I assume it to be of Asian descent
Most likely of Pakistan or Indian origin ?

So why do you defend the union...when it subjugated these countries during the empire

Would you now argue that it is wrong that these two countries are now separate independent entities

Should Pakistan be part of India ?"

I'll spare the person the shame of saying their name. I am sure it is not indicative of opinion within the SNP but it's not the first time someone has put it to me (including from some who ought to know better) so I feel I have to answer it.

I've blogged on Pakistan and it's ongoing troubles before. The first blog I ever wrote was on the power of the military in the country and I've written on it several times since then. I'm so Scottish that I still convince myself that we will qualify for every football tournament but just like so many of my friends feel an attachment to Ireland due to their heritage I feel the same to Pakistan.

And that's why the comparison is so offensive and disgusting.

Anybody with a modicum of historical knowledge could write a book about why what the people of India were subjected to pre-1948 is incomparable to Scotland today but if we can assume it's a given that the suggestion is absurd and a slight on all those who suffered then let's move onto the second point: the pursuit of Independence.

In India after Independence was won (not separation, they were never a part of the Union) Muhammad Ali Jinnah of the Muslim League took the monumentus decision that the minority but significant Muslim population could never be fairly represented in an independent India and so there was the creation of Pakistan involving the widespread transfer of refugees across the newly created border.

1 million people died in the process.

Partition was one of the most disgusting events ever to have taken place since the Second World War with disgraceful scenes of violence with villages being burned down and when you talk to the significant elder immigrant Asian community you will hear a lot of tales about what life was like in the old days but I promise you, you will never hear about Partition, the shame of what happened is so great.

Yet we still know all about it. I would go as far as saying there is not one single Asian immigrant or 2nd or in my case 3rd generation Asian immigrant who does not know someone or of someone who suffered terrible hardship due to partition and a lot never knew relatives because of the evils of it.

Alex Salmond has gone to great lengths to present Scottish Nationalism as a civic nationalism and I don't besmirch that for a moment. He understands that this is the kind of idiocy that disgusts people.

And make no mistake about it, by making the comparison it is a slight on every single one of these 1 million utterly pointless deaths.

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Alex Ferguson backs Willie Bain

No, not the Presiding Officer. One of the greatest managers Scotland and Britain has ever seen (in my mind second only to Jock Stein) has endorsed Willie Bain in the Glasgow North East by election saying in a newsletter going out this weekend:

"I’m backing Willie Bain and I urge people to vote Labour in this by-election. I’ve supported Labour all my life and think the country is a better place for it for the Party being in power.

Glasgow is my home city and every time I come back I see the changes for the better since 1997. It’s a world away from when I was a young apprentice.

But some things stay the same. Like the need for a strong local voice to speak for the city. Glasgow doesn’t always get its fair share, so I know the value of having someone able to stop the city being ripped off.

I always tell young players that being a footballer is the best job in the world. Yes, it’s hard work to reach the top but nothing to bringing up a family or running a household on a tight budget.

As the only genuinely local candidate in this election, Willie understands what needs to be done. Willie’s Action Plan for Glasgow focuses on people’s real concerns and priorities. His determination to crack down on crime and fight to improve chances for local people is spot on, and has my whole-hearted support.

With the global downturn, we’re going through tough times. But the Labour government under Gordon Brown has been recognised for its leadership around the world. Unlike the Tories, he is giving real help now to ordinary people.

I started out life as a shop steward at Remington Rand so I know the difference a strong, genuine voice can make. Willie Bain won’t let you down. He deserves your support too."

Ladbrokes have also slashed the odds for a Labour win.

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Negative Campaigning

As the SNP have been on the backfoot pretty much since the start of this campaign every time either Labour or the press highlight one of the blunders that David Kerr has made there is an accusation of horrific negativity as this new evil of campaigning has been invented by the spawns of Satan in Scottish Labour.

Yet the hypocrisy from the SNP is astounding. They won Glasgow East saying that they should "send Gordon Brown a message." Where is the positivity in that?

The Scotsman's blog 'The Steamie' have started running a terrific feature giving all the candidates the chance to lay out their stall which should be the perfect chance for David Kerr to tell us his ideas for the seat in this wonderfully positive campaign brimming with ideas and suggestions.

So what did he say?

• An attack on Labour for the delay in the by election
• An attack on Labour for school closures (I wonder how he feels about the SNP Council in Edinburgh closing schools?)
• Attacking Labour on taking people 'for granted.'

The line which everyone in the SNP have been repeating is that of '74 years of neglect.' Ignoring the fact that it is not true where are the positive policies on tackling the social evils of poverty and inequality of opportunity?

I can, and have, spoken about the problems of tackling it as well as Labour's progress tackling it. It's why I joined the Labour Party which is why I talk about it on a semi-regular basis but you only hear about it from the SNP when there is a Glasgow by election.

And I hope no one insults their own and my intelligence by somehow blaming Trident for poverty.

By elections are sadly not positive in the media wars. It is on the doorstep where a positive case has to be made. This sanctimonious attitude moaning about the by election when you lose the media battle just makes them look petulant and hypocritical.

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SNP Strategy Disaster

It's been amazing how quickly the SNP's reputation has gone from strategical geniuses after Glasgow East to political lightweights

The story was fairly simple. David Kerr was talking up his local credentials and said he was born in the constituency whilst telling voters in Falkirk where he stood in a previous by-election that he was born in Cumbernauld; he was actually born in Govan.

Of couse they are concerned that Willie Bain is a local candidate with a massive personal vote but surely it would make sense for the SNP to play to their strengths rather than expose their weaknesses?

Whether he was born in Cumbernauld, Govan, Dennistoun or Jupiter isn't a a problem, it was apparently lying about it that was the problem. It looks bad particularly after the torrent of abuse the SNP gave Margaret Curran for misspeaking when she said she had always lived in the East End of Gasgow.

Yet as I say it's not the end of the world. Any strategist worth their weight in salt should simply look at what the image is that this creates and try and rectify it. The image problem is that it looks like he was distancing himself from Glasgow to win votes elsewhere.

What he should have done to rectify it was to put his hands up and say:

"In the heat of the election everyone always talk up their local credentials. I went too far before and I am sorry about that but let me make this absolutely clear, I am not ashamed of being born in Glasgow, I am proud of it and would be proud to represent the people of Glasgow North East."

But no instead on Newsnight Scotland David Kerr decided to blame an "over enthusiastic leaflet writer." The first problem with that is it looks evasive and makes him sound like the hapless minister in 'The Thick Of It' when he blames a policy cock-up on a 'disgruntled civil servant.'

And the second problem is that this wasn't just one leaflet. David Kerr being born in Cumbernauld was mentioned no fewer than 4 times. It's highly unlikely that David Kerr was that incompetent that he missed it 4 times; this is why being honest pays off.

Then it got even worse when the First Minister, never exactly shy to get in front of a camera, tried to turn this round by showing how out of touch Labour is for not knowing that there was not a maternity hospital in Glasgow North East.

Except that there was: Stobhill Hospital and Robroyston. Indeed Willie Bain was born in Stobhill himself. Sadly the Tories then closed them down as part of that Thatcherite economic philosophy that Scotland apparently 'didn't mind.'

And so a story that should have lasted a day in the press will now last all week - that is the week before polling day.

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